INDEPENDENT THINKING. EVERY GAME.● DESIGN PREVIEW · SAMPLE DATA
BETMETRICS.Inside the model
The game is in the details.
MLB predictionsSIM · DESIGN EXAMPLE
THE MATCHUP FILE

Mets at Phillies.

First pitch · Sep 7, 8:00 PM CT / Phillies · sample home venue

SAMPLE SNAPSHOT · Sep 7, 11:00 AM CT. All observations, decisions, inputs, scores and grades on this page are fictional design examples.
01 / THE DECISIONNot ranked for coverage
FROZEN PREGAME OUTPUT

PHI to win.

64%

SIM · As of Sep 6, 8:00 PM CT

A starting-pitching advantage, backed by a rested bullpen.

Not ranked for coverage. This sample game is in the low coverage tier; its model estimate is still shown.

02 / THE EXPLANATION

What moved the number.

SIM · As of Sep 6, 8:00 PM CT. The sample market starting point is 56%. These illustrative contributions are percentage points.

Starting pitching

The sample starter profile combines more strikeouts with fewer walks.

+5.2 pp

Offense vs. righties

The projected lineup has a stronger sample split against right-handed pitching.

+2.4 pp

Bullpen availability

High-leverage relievers enter the illustrative matchup with more rest.

+1.6 pp

Ballpark conditions

A hitter-friendly setting reduces some of the pitching advantage.

-1.2 pp
03 / THE INPUT SNAPSHOT

The prices at capture.

Inputs belong to a specific decision receipt. Current prices are kept on the odds comparison page.

Run line
PHI −1.5 (+135) / NYM +1.5 (−155)
Total
8.5 · Over −110 / Under −110
Moneyline
PHI −145 / NYM +125

SIM market snapshot · full game · Captured Sep 6, 8:00 PM CT