INDEPENDENT THINKING. EVERY GAME.DESIGN PREVIEW · SAMPLE DATA
BETMETRICS.Inside the model
The game is in the details.
THE MATCHUP FILE

Mets at Phillies.

First pitch · Aug 31, 1:00 PM CT / Phillies · sample home venue

SAMPLE SNAPSHOT · Sep 7, 11:00 AM CT. All observations, decisions, inputs, scores and grades on this page are fictional design examples.
Postgame analysis is not available yet.

The final score is available. No published analysis report is connected to this game.

01 / THE DECISIONFinal
FROZEN PREGAME OUTPUT

PHI to win.

64%

SIM · As of Aug 30, 1:00 PM CT

A starting-pitching advantage, backed by a rested bullpen.

The game is complete. A grade appears only when a matching settlement exists.

FINAL SCORE · As of Sep 7, 11:00 AM CTNYM 5PHI 3
Settlement: LOST · SIM-grade-SIM-PHI-settled-1
02 / THE EXPLANATION

What moved the number.

SIM · As of Aug 30, 1:00 PM CT. The sample market starting point is 56%. These illustrative contributions are percentage points.

Starting pitching

The sample starter profile combines more strikeouts with fewer walks.

+5.2 pp

Offense vs. righties

The projected lineup has a stronger sample split against right-handed pitching.

+2.4 pp

Bullpen availability

High-leverage relievers enter the illustrative matchup with more rest.

+1.6 pp

Ballpark conditions

A hitter-friendly setting reduces some of the pitching advantage.

-1.2 pp
03 / THE INPUT SNAPSHOT

The prices at capture.

Inputs belong to a specific decision receipt. Current prices are kept on the odds comparison page.

Run line
PHI −1.5 (+135) / NYM +1.5 (−155)
Total
8.5 · Over −110 / Under −110
Moneyline
PHI −145 / NYM +125

SIM market snapshot · full game · Captured Aug 30, 1:00 PM CT