INDEPENDENT THINKING. EVERY GAME.● DESIGN PREVIEW · SAMPLE DATA
BETMETRICS.Inside the model
The game is in the details.
NFL predictionsSIM · DESIGN EXAMPLE
THE MATCHUP FILE / WEEK 2

Packers at Bears.

Kickoff · Sep 13, 9:00 AM CT / Bears · sample home venue

SAMPLE SNAPSHOT · Sep 13, 11:00 AM CT. All observations, decisions, inputs, scores and grades on this page are fictional design examples.
01 / THE DECISIONKicked off · frozen
FROZEN PREGAME OUTPUT

Cover margin.

-1.8 pts
90% residual interval-14.2 to +18.6 points
Zero is inside the interval. Both directions remain possible.

SIM · As of Sep 12, 9:00 AM CT

Sample predicted cover margin at the T−24 decision line.

The pregame pick is frozen. It is historical and no longer current.

02 / HOW TO READ THE OUTPUT

Keep the uncertainty in view.

The NFL output is a point margin at the decision line. Its residual interval spans a range of possible errors; it is not a win probability.

MODEL STATEMENT

Prediction-error experiment. The model has no demonstrated advantage over the market line: on the holdout its error was not distinguishable from the market baseline (the 95% interval crosses zero). Nothing here is a recommendation to act.

03 / THE INPUT SNAPSHOT

The prices at capture.

Inputs belong to a specific decision receipt. Current prices are kept on the odds comparison page.

Spread
CHI −3.5 (−110) / GB +3.5 (−110)
Total
47.5 · Over −110 / Under −110
Moneyline
CHI −145 / GB +125

SIM market snapshot · full game · Captured Sep 12, 9:00 AM CT