Six programs the offseason lists keep near the top: Florida, Duke, Illinois, UConn, Louisville, and a diminished Michigan

No official preseason poll appears in any source we retained for this piece. What exists are outlets' offseason rankings, and two are current enough to be useful: CBS Sports' Top 25 And 1, Version 26, published Sept. 1, and On3's way-too-early Top 25 9.0, published June 16. Both are attributed commentary. The roster facts below come from those pieces and from official school and NCAA pages; the orderings are the outlets', not ours. [S1][S2]

Florida

CBS Sports has Florida No. 1 in Version 26, based on the Gators returning six of their top seven scorers from a 27-8 team: Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, Boogie Fland, Reuben Chinyelu, Urban Klavsar and Isaiah Brown, joined by Kentucky transfer Denzel Aberdeen and 7-foot center Jones Lay. On3 also had Florida first in June, noting that the full frontcourt returns and that the Gators were awaiting an official decision on Aberdeen's eligibility. Florida opens the Players Era 8 in Las Vegas against Notre Dame on Nov. 17. [S1][S2][S7]

Duke

CBS has Duke No. 2, returning four of its top six scorers from a 35-3 team that reached the Elite Eight: Patrick Ngongba II, Caleb Foster, Cayden Boozer and Dame Sarr, plus Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell, Belmont transfer Drew Scharnowski, and five-star prospects Cameron Williams, Deron Rippey Jr., Bryson Howard and Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje. CBS's July portal review says Duke convinced Scharnowski to take a bench role and now has one of the deepest frontcourts in the country. On3 listed Cameron Boozer among Duke's departures and had the Blue Devils fourth in June. Duke also plays UConn in a one-off game in Las Vegas on Thanksgiving Eve. [S1][S3][S2][S7]

Illinois

CBS ranks Illinois No. 3, returning five of its top eight scorers from a 28-9 Final Four team: Andrej Stojakovic, David Mirkovich, Tomislav Ivisic, Zvonimir Ivisic and Jake Davis, joined by Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks. CBS's portal review describes Vaaks as a 6-foot-7 Estonian guard whose pull-up shooting and pick-and-roll vision should fit an Illinois offense in which center Tomi Ivisic made 50 threes and forward David Mirkovic made 57 last season. On3 had Illinois seventh in June, when it was still awaiting official word on Stojakovic's return. [S1][S3][S2]

UConn

UConn lost the title game 69-63 to Michigan and finished 34-6; Alex Karaban led the Huskies with 17 points that night and has since departed. CBS has UConn No. 4, returning Braylon Mullins, Silas Demary and Jayden Ross and adding a large transfer group headed by Duke's Nikolas Khamenia and Seton Hall's Najai Hines. On3 had UConn third in June and credited the program with moving early to secure its players and keep them out of the NBA Draft process. [S4][S1][S2]

Louisville

Louisville is the portal story. CBS ranks the Cardinals No. 8 with only Adrian Wooley back from a 24-11 team, plus Kansas center Flory Bidunga, North Carolina's Seth Trimble, Oregon's Jackson Shelstad, Arkansas's Karter Knox, Iowa's Alvaro Folgueiras, Dayton's De'Shayne Montgomery, USC's Gabe Dynes and five-star Obinna Ekezie Jr. CBS's portal review says all six of Pat Kelsey's transfers are upperclassmen, that Bidunga's presence alone gives Louisville a shot at a top-15 defense, and that the open question is who makes everyone else better. On3 had Louisville 14th in June. [S1][S3][S2]

Michigan

The defending champion beat UConn for its first title since 1989 and finished 37-3. In April, CBS opened its 2026-27 rankings with Michigan No. 1 on the premise that a top-two recruiting class would join four of the top six scorers from the title team. By Sept. 1 that premise had eroded: five-star freshman Brandon McCoy Jr. tore an ACL on the team's European tour and is out for the season, and CBS moved Michigan to No. 16, now counting only Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney among returning top-five scorers, with transfers J.P. Estrella, Moustapha Thiam and Jalen Reed added. On3 had Michigan second in June, before the injury. [S4][S8][S1][S2]

The coaching change compounds it. Mike Boynton Jr. was named head coach on July 10 on a two-year contract after Dusty May left for the Dallas Mavericks; CBS notes only the first year is guaranteed. Michigan's announcement credits Boynton, the defensive coordinator, with a defense that led the nation in KenPom adjusted efficiency in 2025-26. CBS reports guard Roddy Gayle Jr. has sued for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction to play a fifth season and would almost certainly start if cleared. [S6][S1][S5]

BetMetrics' view: the sourced facts here are roster lists and one outlet's ordering of them. Florida, Duke and Illinois are the teams whose cases rest on returning production rather than on new arrivals; Louisville and Michigan are the teams whose cases depend on how transfers and freshmen fit. We will not have a model view until games are played, and nothing above is a pick. [S1]