The matchup file — Decision, inputs & evidence

Nov 17, 2026 · 5:00 PM CT · SAMPLE MATCHUPFinal · sample

Final · three periodsCompare pregame sample odds

SIM · Fictional game, model output and receipt. These examples do not represent a live forecast or demonstrated predictive performance.

THE ORIGINAL DECISION

What the model said.

FROZEN PREGAME PICKSAMPLE

61%Toronto Maple Leafs
Full-game winner · includes OT/SO

Shot volume and special teams support the away side in this illustrative decision.

Shot volume: +5 percentage points
Power play: +4 percentage points
Rest differential: +3 percentage points
Opponent goaltending: −1 percentage point

Illustrative additive breakdown: 50 + 5 + 4 + 3 − 1 = 61%. Factors are authored examples, not fitted effects.

THE COUNTERCASE

One hot goalie changes the story.

The home side’s goaltending is the counterweight in this example. If shot volume turns into low-quality attempts, the apparent advantage can disappear.

The goalie question.

Goalie status is an illustrative input only. No real starter is confirmed. A missing required goalie input produces an abstain state in the sample board.

Inside the model

THE RECEIPT · SAMPLE

The inputs, kept with the decision.

Market at capture.

Moneyline: TOR -145 / FLA +125
Puck line: TOR −1.5 / FLA +1.5
Total goals: 6.5 · Over / Under
Market scope: Full game, including OT and shootout settlement. Regulation 3-way prices are excluded.

Provenance.

Captured / as of: 2026-11-16 23:00:00 UTC
Model version: SIM-hockey-v0.1 · illustrative
Receipt ID: SIM-NHL-2026-11-17-0-T24
Original game ID: SIM:nhl:2026-11-17:0
Timing: Sample T−24 receipt; frozen at puck drop

AFTER THE HORN · SAMPLE REPORT

The result. And what comes next.

THE SCORING STORYFinal · 2–3

PERIOD 11–0TOR / FLA

PERIOD 20–2TOR / FLA

PERIOD 31–1TOR / FLA

Follow the gameAfter period 3

Puck dropFinal horn

AFTER PERIOD 3

TOR 2–3 FLA

Florida Panthers leads at this checkpoint.

Period totals support this scoring summary. Exact scoring times, shot locations, and player attribution are not supplied.

THE POSTGAME READ

The result went the other way.

The original sample call was Toronto Maple Leafs to win. The matching 2–3 final grades that decision lost.

One result cannot validate the reasons behind a pick. A deeper postmortem needs verified play-by-play, goalie usage, and special-teams events.

LOOKING AHEAD

Recheck the starting goalie, rest, and any availability changes before the next matchup. Carry the questions forward; do not carry forward the old probability.

Next sample matchup · Nov 18, 2026

Open the settlement ledger

THE TEAMS, WITH CONTEXT