The matchup file — Decision, inputs & evidence

Nov 18, 2026 · 9:42 AM CT · SAMPLE MATCHUPPuck dropped · frozen

SIM live · 1st period · 08:42 remainingCompare pregame sample odds

SIM · Fictional game, model output and receipt. These examples do not represent a live forecast or demonstrated predictive performance.

THE DECISION FILE

The case, in plain sight.

FROZEN PREGAME PICKSAMPLE

61%Detroit Red Wings
Full-game winner · includes OT/SO

The pregame pick is frozen. It is no longer a current recommendation.

Shot volume: +5 percentage points
Power play: +4 percentage points
Rest differential: +3 percentage points
Opponent goaltending: −1 percentage point

Illustrative additive breakdown: 50 + 5 + 4 + 3 − 1 = 61%. Factors are authored examples, not fitted effects.

THE COUNTERCASE

One hot goalie changes the story.

The home side’s goaltending is the counterweight in this example. If shot volume turns into low-quality attempts, the apparent advantage can disappear.

The goalie question.

Goalie status is an illustrative input only. No real starter is confirmed. A missing required goalie input produces an abstain state in the sample board.

Inside the model

THE RECEIPT · SAMPLE

The inputs, kept with the decision.

Market at capture.

Moneyline: DET -145 / MTL +125
Puck line: DET −1.5 / MTL +1.5
Total goals: 6.5 · Over / Under
Market scope: Full game, including OT and shootout settlement. Regulation 3-way prices are excluded.

Provenance.

Captured / as of: 2026-11-17 15:42:00 UTC
Model version: SIM-hockey-v0.1 · illustrative
Receipt ID: SIM-NHL-2026-11-18-5-T24
Original game ID: SIM:nhl:2026-11-18:5
Timing: Sample T−24 receipt; frozen at puck drop

THE TEAMS, WITH CONTEXT

Follow the underlying form.

Detroit Red Wings

Goals / game: 2.58
Against / game: 2.33
Power play: 21.4%
Penalty kill: 86.1%

Independent Nov 1–12 team sample. These totals are not the captured model inputs above.

Montréal Canadiens

Goals / game: 2.50
Against / game: 2.00
Power play: 21.4%
Penalty kill: 83.3%