Buffalo Bills: Week 5 Recap & Week 6 Forecast
Week 5 · 2025 · October 10, 2025
The Week 5 Breakdown: Josh Allen and the Bills suffered a devastating home loss to their division rivals on Sunday Night Football, and the film reveals troubling trends. Allen's deep passing game has completely evaporated - he connected on just 20 yards on 6 deep attempts (20+ air yards). This follows a Week 1 masterclass against Baltimore where he went 5-of-8 for 130 yards deep. Over the last three weeks, Allen's deep ball production represents his worst three-game stretch in his entire career for throws 20+ yards downfield.
The defensive issues are equally concerning. Patriots rookie Drake Maye carved up Buffalo's secondary deep (they allowed 247 yards and 3 TDs on 20+ yard throws - bottom-three in NFL). This is alarming for a defense that's been elite. Then Matt Milano suffered a pectoral injury and didn't return - absolutely catastrophic for a run defense that will now face significant challenges.
Analytics
- Allen averages 27.1 fantasy PPG through 4 games (pre-Week 5)
- Dalton Kincaid: 66.7 PPR points (2nd among TEs), 3 receiving TDs (career high already)
- Kincaid targeted 6+ times in 3-of-5 games - clear TE1
- James Cook continues RB1 production
- Defense allows bottom-3 marks on deep passes
Injuries
Injury Report & Impact:
LB Matt Milano (pectoral) - Left game, didn't return. Pectoral injuries typically mean 4-8 week absences. This is MASSIVE. Milano is their QB of the defense, elite in coverage, and crucial in run support. His absence will be exploited by opponents. Backup depth is concerning.
Betting Intel
Betting Gold:The Bills are in a terrible ATS trend: 4-11 ATS when laying 6+ points dating back to Week 6 of 2023, including 0-3 ATS specifically vs New England. They failed to cover as 11.5-point favorites vs Miami (won 31-21) and 14.5-point favorites vs New Orleans (won 31-19) in previous weeks. Buffalo simply cannot cover big numbers.
Historical context: Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Buffalo (meaning Patriots have covered), suggesting a mental block. The public will overreact and hammer Bills after this loss.
Fantasy Deep Dive
FantasyJosh Allen (QB1): Still must-start despite deep ball woes. Attempting 38.8 passes/game. The Falcons defense is mediocre. Start with confidence but temper ceiling expectations.
Dalton Kincaid (TE3): Legitimate every-week TE1. Seeing 15-20% target share. His 6'4" frame makes him red zone gold. MUST START.
James Cook (RB10): Solid RB1/RB2. Gets 15-18 touches/game. Falcons run D is vulnerable.
Week 5 Forecast:
Week 6 Forecast: Classic letdown-to-bounce-back. Bills embarrassed at home, now travel to desperate Falcons (1-3) off bye. Atlanta has had 2 weeks to prepare. Kirk Cousins in primetime historically struggles but he's home. Bills should win 27-23 but -3.5 is dangerous. Milano out hurts vs Bijan Robinson. Best Bet: Falcons +3.5 - home dog off bye in primetime.
